CATL Is Losing Its Market

Industrials Author: Boying Ji Apr 24, 2023 09:00 AM (GMT+8)

This year CATL is facing a more severe domestic new energy vehicle market


According to data released by the global consulting agency SNE Research on April 4, from January to February 2023, the global installed capacity of electric vehicle batteries will be about 75.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 39%. Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd (CATL) continued to rank first with an installed capacity of 25.5 GWh. However, its installed capacity grew by 34.0% year-on-year, which was lower than the global average growth rate of 39%, lower than the second-ranked BYD's growth rate of 122.6%, and lower than overseas competitors LG New Energy's 51.9%, Panasonic 47.6%, Samsung SDI 57.2% year-on-year growth rate.


In terms of market share, CATL also dropped 1.2 percentage points to 33.9% compared with 35.1% in the same period last year. BYD's market share rose from 11.3% last year to 18.2%, a substantial increase of 6.9 percentage points.

When comparing CATL with BYD, SNE Research pointed out that the growth of battery sales in CATL was mainly due to the continued growth in sales of Tesla Model 3/Y, SAIC MG MULAN, Weilai ET5, and Kia Niro BEV.

Compared with BYD in the CATL, the advantage of BYD's self-produced and self-used batteries is too obvious. Another data released by SNE Research on the same day showed that the number of new energy vehicles registered in countries around the world from January to February 2023 was about 1.514 million, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%. The first to third places in market share are BYD (23.3%), Tesla (14.6%), and Volkswagen (6.7%). In terms of growth rate, the top three car companies are BYD (93.7%), Tesla (55%), and Geely (26.5%).

In terms of domestic new energy vehicle sales data, the newsletter of the Passenger Association on April 4 shows that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers nationwide are estimated to be 600,000 in March, a month-on-month increase of 20% and a year-on-year increase of 30%. Among them, BYD has 206,100 vehicles, accounting for more than 1/3 of the domestic new energy vehicle market, and Tesla China ranks second with 89,000 vehicles.

No matter the overseas or domestic market, the sales volume of BYD is the best. Although the sales volume of Tesla has also increased significantly, Tesla's battery suppliers are dispersed into CATL Times, LG New Energy, Panasonic, and "Musk A good friend of BYD. In addition, Tesla's self-produced 4680 batteries can also meet some vehicle needs.

There is no doubt that this year CATL is facing a more severe domestic new energy vehicle market. At the beginning of the year, the state subsidy for new energy vehicles was withdrawn, and then Tesla triggered a price war for electric vehicles and then ushered in the price inversion of fuel vehicles. It can be seen that the average sales growth rate of 25% in the new energy vehicle market in the first quarter of this year has dropped sharply compared with the growth momentum of over 100% in the same period last year. Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, also pointed out in his keynote speech at the 100 Electric Vehicle Forum that 2023 will experience the pain of complete vehicle price competition and the transformation of the automobile industry chain.

In order to achieve better profits, new energy vehicle manufacturers may continue to try to deal with battery costs, which account for the majority. Cao Guangping, an independent researcher of new energy and intelligent network connections, suggested that car companies should develop more energy-saving and consumption-reducing technologies in the future to reduce battery usage.

The good news is that CATL still has an increase in overseas markets this year. According to data from SNE Research on April 4, from January to February 2023, in overseas markets other than China, the installed capacity of electric vehicle batteries is about 36.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 50.1%, exceeding the global battery installed year-on-year growth rate.

In terms of battery loading in overseas markets, Ningde Times ranked second with 8.7GWh, a growth rate of 79.3%, exceeding the 48.9% growth rate of the first LG New Energy, and also surpassing the growth rate of Ningde Times in the Chinese market and the global market.

However, in the longer term, the subsidy rules for clean energy vehicles in the U.S. "Inflation Reduction Act" will come into effect on April 18, and the rules will impose strict requirements on the localization ratio of battery mineral raw materials and battery components. The European Union's recent "Key Raw Materials Act" puts forward restrictions on the localized production capacity of key minerals including lithium, but it adds another uncertainty to CATL in overseas markets.